Calibration training is a rare opportunity to pick up a truly valuable and general skill in a few hours. Calibration-trained people can communicate more clearly with each other about their knowledge and uncertainty on practically any topic, making this a particularly useful skill for organizations looking to improve the quality of internal discussions. The Open Philanthropy Project has invested significantly in calibration training for employees, and I highly recommend it to other organizations. I can also vouch for Danny as an excellent resource for calibration training and similar services.

— Holden Karnofsky | Executive Director of Open Philanthropy, Board Member of OpenAI


I'm happy to do things that don't scale to help improve the decision-making culture at your organization. If our mission resonates with you, I can customize training material for you and your team. I aim for you to be self-sufficient after a couple hours with only occasional guidance after that.


I've worked with audiences from 10-200 people at Twitch, Quora, Salesforce, Kite, Twitter, Mode, and GoogleX. I like to do workshops because the iteration loop is really fast. The ideal setting is usually 60 minutes over lunch with an engineering, product, or exec team. This is a great option if the relevant leader has bought into leveraging judgment based forecasts and is looking to mobilize their team. If that's not quite the case yet a 1 on 1 consultation is a better place to start.

Strategic Planning

I've directly helped many executives and founders make their first predictions. The process reliably refines and clarifies their views on a critical decision, so it produces immediate value. Often the session generates strong interest for deploying the practice into their culture, and such interest from an internal champion is absolutely critical for anything to take root.

On rare occasions I may take on extended engagements. I'm currently spending a significant amount of time collaborating with OpenAI and OpenPhilanthropy on predictions around transformative AI.

Evidence-Driven Cultures

I endorse Brian Chesky's relentless focus on Airbnb's culture. I think that's an appropriate place for a CEO to spend a ton of time. I'm uniquely situated to help your culture become more evidence-driven. What I mean by evidence here, loosely, is anything that can help your staff make better decisions. So an evidence-driven company makes better decisions by definition. In my experience the strongest, most neglected evidence is generally the intuition of your staff, leveraged in a rigorous fashion.

I'm happy to work with companies that are serious about developing an evidence-driven culture. Open Philanthropy is the most rigorous organization I know, and their interest in the judgment based forecasting space was material in my decision to pursue this course.

interested? email: